keeling curve

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Out of Mother Nature's Hands


But however Mother Nature is working to mitigate the effects of rising CO2 levels on land and in the oceans, Ralph Keeling is quick to point out that the apparent ability of land plants to slow down drops in atmospheric oxygen levels is only slight. It cannot be read as a sign that nature will prevail somehow in the face of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. In fact, Ralph Keeling's findings suggest to him a dire future in which, as he puts it, "instability will be the norm."

"What we're talking about isn't a world that's a little bit warmer but a world that's constantly warming," said Keeling. "The period of instability plays out for centuries. That's why it's so important to stabilize carbon dioxide."

The younger Keeling points out that the use of remaining fossil fuel reserves on the planet will create a store of carbon dioxide at least five times that of the store of carbon stored in the atmosphere or on land. If all those reserves are used, his father's famous curve could register 2 readings as high as 1,500 ppm within a few hundred years. Concentrations of CO2 will remain inflated for thousands of years, overwhelming natural controls over climate.

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"Ralph's work with oxygen is taking us to the next depth of understanding," said Dickson. "We need to know that to make plausible assertions about what likely future we have."

Charles David Keeling will be remembered as a scientist who made it clear that carbon dioxide levels are rising because of human activities, ending what had been only speculation before the Keeling Curve. Son Ralph's legacy might be that he among many others will have made the nature of the solution equally clear. Nature's own fate will essentially be beyond its own control, leaving society only two options. It can keep on expanding fossil fuel use at current rates and almost certainly face catastrophic climate change. Its other option is to drastically curtail fossil fuel use and learn to adapt to a new world in which climate changes significantly but hopefully not as severely.

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