keeling curve

The (Ralph) Keeling Curve

After two decades watching atmospheric oxygen levels drop, a Scripps researcher's conclusions about climate could leave one feeling light-headed


By Robert Monroe

In March, one of the most significant research efforts in recent science history will celebrate its 50th anniversary. The record of rising carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere known as the Keeling Curve marks for many people the point when society became aware that human activities can cause long-term changes to climate.

The Keeling Curve, named for the late Charles David Keeling, a geochemist at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego, has resolved a number of debates in its 50-year history. It had established by the early 1960s that fossil fuel burning would lead to greater concentrations of atmospheric CO2. That early warning helped make clear to climate scientists that that rise in carbon dioxide would trigger large climate changes. 

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But the Keeling Curve only describes what happens to a portion of the carbon dioxide produced by natural and human activities. Other parts of the story are now being told by a number of researchers, including Keeling's own son Ralph. Some 20 years after he entered the family business, Ralph Keeling has produced a record of atmospheric levels of oxygen, yin to the yang of CO2, that is helping scientists understand what to expect from climate in the future. This part of the story started with a conversation between a father and a son at the kitchen table.

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